Methods

Floor Speeches and Ideological Position: Estimating Ideology of Representatives

Benjamin Guinaudeau and Simon Roth (University of Konstanz)

Abstract: Estimating ideological position has always been challenging for political scientists. The technical progress of the last decades -digitalization, computational improvements- opened new opportunities to measure ideological position. While...

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Keyword Assisted Topic Models

Shusei Eshima (Harvard University), Tomoya Sasaki (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and Kosuke Imai (Harvard University)

Abstract: For a long time, many social scientists have conducted content analysis by using their substantive knowledge and manually coding documents. In recent years, however, fully automated...

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A Variable Selection Approach to Spillovers

Gustavo Diaz (University of Illinois, Urbana–Champaign)

Abstract: Spillovers or interference feature in many questions of interest in the social sciences. Current approaches to analyze spillovers in experiments assume that the researcher observes all relevant networks, implying knowledge of how units are connected. However,...

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Sensitivity Analysis for Outcome Tests

Elisha Cohen (Emory University)

Abstract: Outcome tests, a method that can be used for evaluating bias in selection making processes, are especially useful when using administrative datasets that contain only observations after the selection process has occurred. I show the outcome test lower bound derived by Knox, Lowe, and Mummolo (...

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Quantifying Triggers With Event Coincidence Analysis: An Application to Mass Civilian Killings in Civil War, 1989-2017

Angela Chesler (University of Notre Dame)

Abstract: Scholars of international relations, comparative politics, and peace and conflict studies are often interested in questions concerning the triggers of extreme political outcomes such as war, coups, and genocide. In a causal chain, a trigger is an immediate cause that can be...

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Priming Bias Versus Post-Treatment Bias in Experimental Designs

Jacob Brown (Harvard University), Matthew Blackwell (Harvard University), Sophie Hill (Harvard University), Kosuke Imai (Harvard University) and Teppei Yamamoto (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract:  It is now widely recognized that conditioning on variables affected by a treatment can induce post-treatment bias when estimating causal...

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Friend or Faux: Social Network-Based Early Detection of Fake User Accounts on Facebook

Adam Breuer (Harvard University), R. Eilat (Facebook Research), U. Weinsberg (Facebook Research)

Abstract: In 2019 alone, Facebook disabled over 6 billion fake user accounts. While early...

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Scaling the Youtube Media Environment Using Network and Text Data

Soubhik Barari (Harvard)

Abstract: In an era where many Internet news-seekers prefer to watch rather than read their news, YouTube plays an important role in mass political communication, but remains entirely unstudied by political...

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Estimating Historical Election Results Under Counterfactual Electoral Systems

Samuel Baltz (University of Michigan)

Abstract: Despite the salience and importance of electoral system reform, both in the political science literature and in the contemporary politics of many democracies, little direct attention has been paid to the following question: how might the results of a specific election have been...

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Bias-Corrected Crosswise Estimators for Sensitive Inquiries

Yuki Atsusaka (Rice University), Randy Stevenson (Rice University) and Ahra Wu (Dartmouth College)

Abstract: The crosswise model is an increasingly popular survey technique to elicit candid answers from respondents...

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