Emerging Cohort

Estimating the Dark Figure of Crime Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees Plus Poststratification (BARP)

Isabel Laterzo (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Abstract: Studies of both crime victimization and violence often suffer from demonstrably unreliable crime figures. Consequently, researchers typically use homicide rates as an indicator to reflect all types of violence, despite this figure’s biases. The...

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Estimating Heterogeneous Effect on Clustered Data Using Mixed-Effects Model

Junlong Zhou (New York University)

Abstract: Estimating the heterogeneous treatment effect is essential to assess the generality and mechanism of randomized experiments. In this paper, we propose an extension of the regression forest combining mixed-effects to analyze heterogeneous treatment effect using aggregated data sets. We show that including mixed-effects can improve estimation by accounting for the cluster-level...

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Religiosity and Secularism: A Text-as-Data Approach to Recover Jihadist Groups' Rhetorical Strategies

Luwei Ying (Washington University in St. Louis)

*Award for Best Graduate Student Poster - Applications*

Abstract: Radical Islamists as the major force of the current "wave" of terrorism pursue impact, not only attacks. Scholars, however, for decades have almost exclusively focused...

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How a Deep Neural Network Contributes to Learning Causal Graph and Forecasting Political Dynamics

Seo Eun Yang (Ohio State University)

Abstract: Nonlinearity has been considerably interested in time series analysis of conflict/opinion dynamics. However, handling unknown nonlinear interactions on time series data is a methodologically challenging task because traditional models such as VAR Granger analysis or B-SVAR...

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Estimating Population Quantities From Multiple Data Sources Using the Structural Tensor Factorization

Soichiro Yamauchi (Harvard University)

Abstract: Estimating population quantities such as public opinions from survey data is a fundamental task in many social science studies. In political science, there is a growing interest in estimating public opinions at the level smaller than the entire nation, such as states (Lax and Phillips...

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Gaussian Process Models for Causal Inference With Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data

Nuannuan Xiang and Kevin Quinn (University of Michigan)

*Award for Best Graduate Student Poster - Methods*

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a class of Gaussian Process models to estimate treatment effects with time-series cross-sectional data, in which a subset of units...

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Supervised Learning Election Forensics With Multi-Agent Simulated Training Data

Fabricio Vasselai (University of Michigan)

Abstract: The main advantage of using Supervised Machine Learning (SML) techniques to detect election fraud would be resorting to model-free or model-ensemble approaches, instead of usual...

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Finding Social Media Trolls: Dynamic Keyword Selection Methods for Rapidly Evolving Online Debates

Maya Srikanth, Anqi Liu, Nicholas Adams-Cohen, Anima Anandkumar and R. Michael Alvarez (California Institute of Technology)

Abstract: Online harassment is a significant social problem. Prevention of online harassment requires rapid detection of harassing, offensive, and negative social media posts. In this paper, we propose the use of word embedding...

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Measuring Issue-Specific Preferences From Votes

Sooahn Shin (Harvard University)

Abstract: How can we measure issue-specific ideal points using roll-call votes? Ideal points have been widely used for measuring ideology, yet its nature of latent space makes it difficult to target a...

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Voter Turnout and Campaign Mail Features

Marcy Shieh and Blake Reynolds (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Abstract:  The way images and text are presented to us can have a significant impact on how we are affected by the message contained in an advertisement. Therefore, we ask how does the formatting of campaign mail influence voter turnout? Using campaign mail from the 2018 primary and general elections in Texas, we examine the layout of campaign mailers. To do this, we leverage machine...

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Formalization of Political Analysis: Matrix of Possibles States and Strategies

Fernando Rocha Rosario (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

Abstract: In this paper I expose a technique which formalizes the political analysis using modal logic and theory of rational choice. For represent the...

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Pay attention to this! Explaining emphasis in legislative speech.

Oliver Rittmann (University of Mannheim), Tobias Ringwald (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) and Dominic Nyhuis (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract: Why do legislators sometimes deliver emphatic speeches and tedious monologues at other times? We argue that legislators make passionate appeals when...

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The Politics of Science: Evidence From 19th-Century Public Health

Casey Petroff (Harvard University)

Abstract: How do governments decide between protecting public health and protecting the economy when a new disease threat emerges? I study this question using evidence from cholera epidemics in the 19th century. In the face of this new threat to public health, professional opinion was divided between...

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The Moral Narrative of the European Sovereign Bond Crisis

Nicola Nones (University of Virginia)

Abstract: In this paper, I take a first step towards assessing if and to what extent the debt crisis has given rise to a moral narrative that starkly divides virtuous Northern European countries on the one side, and spendthrift, lazy Southern European ones on the other side. Such moral...

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Measuring Political Polarization in Mass Publics: The Cluster-Polarization Coefficient

Isaac Mehlhaff (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Abstract: Political polarization has become a key concern in many important topics within comparative politics, yet past research has reached little consensus as to its substantive causes and effects. Much of this disagreement, I argue, stems from the use...

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