Preliminary Program

Final program for paper presentations.

Tuesday, July 14

Panel I

12PM to 1:30PM Eastern Time (9AM to 10:30AM Pacific Time)

Virtual Room 1: Spatial Analysis

Naoki Egami (Columbia University)
Discussant: Yiqing Xu
Causal Inference for Policy Diffusion
Bruce Desmarais (Penn State)
Co-authors: Jeffrey J. Harden, Mark Brockway, Frederick J. Boehmke, Scott LaCombe, Hanna Wallach
Discussant: Shahryar Minhas
Network Event History Analysis for Modeling Public Policy Adoption with Latent Diffusion Networks

Virtual Room 2: Experimental Designs

Libby Jenke (University of Houston)
Co-authors: Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner
Discussant: Anton Strezhnev
Using Eye-Tracking to Understand Decision-Making in Conjoint Experiments
Yamil Velez (Columbia University)
Co-authors: Jason Barabas, John Kane
Discussant: Erin Hartman
Analyze the Attentive and Bypass Bias: Using Mock Vignettes in Survey Experiments

Virtual Room 3: Sample Selection

Teppei Yamamoto (MIT)
Co-authors: Shiyao (Sean) Liu
Discussant: Jennifer Bussell
How Much Should You Trust Your Power Calculation Results? Power Analysis as an Estimation Problem
Jane Sumner (University of Minnesota)
Co-authors: Josef Woldense, AshLee Smith
Discussant: Clayton Webb
How You Ask Matters: Wordsmithing to encourage participation in elite interviews

Virtual Room 4: Text-as-Data

Zhanna Terechshenko (New York University)
Co-authors: Fridolin Linder, Vishakh Padmakumar, Fengyuan Liu, Jonathan Nagler, Joshua A. Tucker, Richard Bonneau
Discussant: Leah Windsor
A comparison of methods in political science text classification: Transfer learning language models for politics
Brandon Stewart (Princeton University)
Co-authors: Pedro Rodriguez, Arthur Spirling
Discussant: Max Goplerud
Embedding Regression: Models for Context-Specific Description and Inference in Social Science

Poster Session I

2:30PM to 4:30PM Eastern Time (11:30AM to 1:30PM Pacific Time)

Plenary Session: Special Panel on Methods for the Study of Race and Ethnicity

4:30PM to 5:30PM Eastern Time (1:30PM to 2:30PM Pacific Time)

Measuring Race and Ethnicity with Applications to Discrimination
Speaker: Marisa A. Abrajano (UCSD)

Measuring Racial Diversity in U.S. Institutions
Speaker: Allison P. Harris (Yale University)

Wednesday, July 15

Panel II

12PM to 1:30PM Eastern Time (9AM to 10:30AM Pacific Time)

Virtual Room 1: Data Access

Georgina Evans (Harvard University)
Co-authors: Gary King, Margaret Schwenzfeier, Abhradeep Thakurta
Discussant: James Honaker
Statistically Valid Inferences from Privacy Protected Data
Zach Warner (Cardiff University)
Co-authors: Christian Arnold, J. Andrew Harris
Discussant: Walter Mebane
Hidden in plain sight: detecting electoral fraud using statutory results

Virtual Room 2: Causal Inference

Justin Esarey (Wake Forest University)
Co-authors: Scott DeMarchi, Joseph K. Young
Discussant: Luke Keele
Casual Inference, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Hypothesis Testing
Eli Ben-Michael (UC Berkeley)
Co-authors: Avi Feller, Jesse Rothstein
Discussant: Chad Hazlett
Approximate balancing weights for subgroup treatment effects: Assessing the differential impact of letters of recommendation in college admissions decisions

Virtual Room 3: Panel and Spatial Analysis

Xun Pang (Tsinghua University)
Co-authors: Licheng Liu, Chong Chen
Discussant: Matthew Blackwell
A Bayesian Method for Identifying and Explaining Dynamic Network Influence With TSCS Data
Sangyeon Kim (Penn State)
Co-authors: Howard Liu, Sangyeon Kim, Bruce Desmarais
Discussant: Scott J. Cook
Predicting Dyadic and Geopolitical Interaction Between Spatially Moving Objects

Virtual Room 4: Applications

Aaron Kaufman (NYU Abu Dhabi)
Co-authors: Sahar Abi-Hassan, Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Dino P. Christenson, Aaron R. Kaufman, Brian Libgober
Discussant: In Song Kim
The Political Ideologies of Organized Interests: Large-Scale, Social Network Estimation of Interest Group Ideal Points
Betsy Sinclair (WUSTL)
Co-authors: Steven Webster, Sanmay Das, Hao Yan
Discussant: Jonathan Nagler
All (Mayoral) Politics is Local?

Poster Session II

2:30PM to 4:30PM Eastern Time (11:30AM to 1:30PM Pacific Time)

Business Meeting

4:30PM to 5:30PM Eastern Time (1:30PM to 2:30PM Pacific Time)

Thursday, July 16

Panel III

12PM to 1:30PM Eastern Time (9AM to 10:30AM Pacific Time)

Virtual Room 1: Machine Learning

Kosuke Imai (Harvard University)
Co-authors: Zhichao Jiang, James Greiner, Ryan Halen, Sooahn Shin
Discussant: Jonathan Mummolo
Experimental Evaluation of Computer-Assisted Human Decision Making: Application to Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument
Marc Ratkovic (Princeton University)
Co-authors: Zenobia Chan
Discussant: Santiago Olivella
Towards A More Transparent Machine Learning

Virtual Room 2: Panel and Spatial Analysis

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (Peace Research Institute Oslo)
Co-authors: Gudmund Horn Hermansen, Jonathan Williams
Discussant: Bruce Desmarais
A Bayesian hidden Markov model for the intensity of violence in internal armed conflicts
Scott Abramson (University of Rochester)
Co-authors: Brandon Cooley, Bethany Lacina
Discussant: Florian Hollenbach
How Wide is the Ethnic Border?

Virtual Room 3: Experimental Designs

Erin Hartman (UCLA)
Co-authors: Naoki Egami
Discussant: Daniel Hopkins
Elements of External Validity: Framework, Design, and Analysis
Parrish Bergquist (Yale University)
Discussant: Stephanie Nail
Introducing a Continuous Climate Change Concern Scale for the Use in Experimental Research

Virtual Room 4: Text and Image Data

Douglas Rice (University of Massachusetts Amherst)   
Co-authors: Justin Gross
Discussant: Brandon Stewart
Untangling Mixtures in Judicial Opinions
Zachary Steinert-Threlkeld (UCLA)   
Co-authors: Jungseock Joo
Discussant: Michelle Torres
Protest Event Data from Images  

Panel IV

2.30PM to 4:00PM Eastern Time (11:30AM to 1PM Pacific Time)

Virtual Room 1: Hierarchical Data

Max Goplerud (Harvard University)
Discussant: Michelle Torres
Marginally Augmented Variational Bayes for Non-Linear Hierarchical Models

Virtual Room 2: Causal Inference

Jason Poulos (Duke University)
Co-authors: Andrea Albanese, Fan Li, Andrea Mercatanti
Discussant: James Bisbee
Retrospective causal inference via elapsed time-weighted matrix completion, with an evaluation on the effect of the Schengen Area on the labour market of border regions
Luke Keele (University of Pennsylvania)
Co-authors: Raiden Hasegawa, Dylan Small, Ting Ye
Discussant: Fredrik Sävje
A Bracketing Method for Difference-in-Differences Based on Monotone Trends

Virtual Room 3: Panel Data

Yiqing Xu (Stanford University)
Co-authors: Xun Pang, Licheng Liu
Discussant: Neal Beck
Bayesian Causal Inference With Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data: A Dynamic Multilevel Latent Factor Model with Hierarchical Shrinkage
Yuki Shiraito (University of Michigan)
Co-authors: Nuannuan Xiang
Discussant: Mark Pickup
The Intergenerational Chinese Restaurant Processes for Gradual Structural Changes

Virtual Room 4: Instrumental Variables

Chad Hazlett (UCLA)
Co-authors: Carlos Cinelli
Discussant: Jacob Montgomery
An omitted variable bias framework for sensitivity analysis of instrumental variables
Matthew Blackwell (Harvard University)
Co-authors: Nicole Pashley
Discussant: Teppei Yamamoto
Noncompliance and instrumental variables for 2^K factorial experiments

Friday, July 17

Panel V

12PM to 1:30PM Eastern Time (9AM to 10:30AM Pacific Time)

Virtual Room 1: Covariate Balancing

Fredrik Savje (Yale University)
Co-authors: Christopher Harshaw, Daniel Spielman, Peng Zhang
Discussant: Marc Ratkovic
Balancing covariates in randomized experiments using the Gram--Schmidt Walk
Erin Hartman (UCLA)
Co-authors: Chad Hazlett, Ciara Sterbenz
Discussant: Luke W. Miratrix
Kpop: A kernel balancing approach for reducing specification assumptions in survey weighting

Virtual Room 2: Conjoint Designs (Extended Panel to 2:15pm ET)

Katherine Clayton (Stanford University)
Co-authors: Yusaku Horiuchi, Aaron Kaufman, Gary King, Mayya Komisarchik
Discussant: Naoki Egami
Avoiding Measurement Error Bias in Conjoint Analysis
Anton Strezhnev (New York University)
Co-authors: Scott Abramson, Korhan Kocak, Asya Magazinnik
Discussant: Jasjeet Sekhon
Improving Preference Elicitation in Conjoint Designs using Machine Learning for Heterogeneous Effects
Daniel Hopkins (University of Pennsylvania)
Co-authors: Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Teppei Yamamoto
Discussant: Kosuke Imai
What Conjoint Experiments Can and Cannot Say about Voter Preferences

Virtual Room 3: Text-as-Data & Item Response Theory

Sarah Dreier (University of Washington)
Co-authors: Emily Gade, Jose Hernandez, Noah A. Smith, Sofia Serrano
Discussant: Arthur Spirling
Troubles in/with Text: Combining qualitative and NLP approaches to analyzing government archives from the UK Troubles in Northern Ireland
Jacob Montgomery (WUSTL)
Co-authors: J. Brandon Duck-Mayr and Roman Garnett
Discussant: Yuki Shiraito
GPIRT: A Gaussian Process Model for Item Response Theory

Corporate Panel: Non-Academic Careers

2:30PM to 4:00PM Eastern Time (11:30AM to 1PM Pacific Time)

Drew Linzer (Civiqs)
Gabriella Sacramone-Lutz (Facebook)
Susanna Supalla (Alloy)
Laila Wahedi (Facebook)